Patterns of Growth By David Bond Economist and contributing writer to the Vancouver Sun

There is a potent combination of factors at work to make owning your own home in the Lower Mainland an increasingly attractive option. First, interest rates have declined to their lowest levels in more than thirty years. The decline in rates means lower monthly mortgage payments. People on a tight budget need to carefully monitor their living expenses and lower mortgage rates that can be locked in for up to five years provide certainty of expenditure patterns, making financial planning that much easier. Most importantly those monthly mortgage payments, in a surprisingly few years, can build up to a sizeable amount of equity. In one sense it is a form of saving. In another, it is investing in your future. The second factor is the growth of the Vancouver urban market... fueled by its position as the busiest port on the western shores of the Americas, and by an airport which serves as Asia's gateway into North America. The end result should be a strong demand for housing units over the foreseeable future. Third, the urban downtown core is undergoing significant revitalization and expansion, so locating in the heart of the action makes living downtown attractive. Fourth, British Columbia -- and Vancouver in particular -- are continuing to attract people. A consistently large influx of immigrants from around the world is complemented by a persistent stream of emigrants from the rest of Canada. Given the attractions of living in the Lower Mainland, this movement to our region shows no signs of stopping. Combine the four factors and the market for housing looks promising indeed. What about the longer haul? What about the next decade or two? Will Vancouver continue to be as strong a market as it was in the 80s and 90s? There is a great deal of evidence to suggest that it will. First, the traditional industries of the region -- forestry and mineral products -- should continue to experience expanding markets, particularly as Asian nations continue to grow at rates of better than 8 percent per year. The products from BC's heartland, both agricultural and mineral, should also enjoy buoyant markets. The expanding airport is fast becoming a major centre for air cargo and the busy hub of a transportation network linking Canada to the rapidly expanding markets of southeast Asia. Passenger traffic has already exceeded the ten-year growth forecasts made just five years ago... and there is every reason to believe that the rapid growth will continue as business and tourist traffic between Asia and North America continues to grow. As a centre for education and advanced medical treatment, Vancouver is attracting people from around the world who wish to come here for study or health services. Add to this Vancouver's growing ability to provide sophisticated business services (everything from architects to management, consumer survey and marketing consultants)... and it is easy to foresee the continued expansion of the Lower Mainland. Patterns of Growth, prepared by David Bond, reflects his personal observations on recent developments in the economy and does not necessarily reflect the position of Concord Pacific Developments Corp. Chart Source: Bank of Canada, 1996; GVRD Strategic Planning Department, May 1994.

Next Article... Vancouvers Finest Recreational Waterway...